As reported by the B.C. Real Estate Association's Chief Economist, Brendon Ogmundson:
In the statement accompanying the decision, the Bank noted a dampening of economic conditions since its most recent projections in April, citing weakness in government spending, housing activity, and business investment, accompanied by rebuilding inventories and (somewhat) anomalous increases in imports. However, the Bank expects growth to resume in the second quarter, albeit at a relatively weak pace.
As the Iran conflict enters its fourth month, CPI inflation rose to 2.8 per cent in April, largely aligning with the Bank’s expectations as the oil price shock places severe pressure on energy prices. However, the Bank has found limited evidence of broad pass-through of higher oil prices into other products, as core inflation remains around 2 per cent, which is a leading factor in the Bank’s policy response to the conflict. Taken together, inflation is still expected to remain around 3 per cent before moderating towards 2 per cent over time. As a result, the Bank is continuing to look through the short-term impact of the conflict on headline inflation, but stands ready to adjust its policy rate if there are signs of persistence and transmission into the prices of other goods.
Weaknesses in the Canadian economy and labour market paired with inflationary pressure from the Iran War continue to place the Bank of Canada in an increasingly difficult position. Central banks traditionally respond to supply shocks akin to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz by evaluating their duration and depth. While temporary spikes in commodity prices can be looked through if policymakers believe their effects will fade, persistent increases in energy costs are more likely to permeate through the economy and affect inflation expectations, forcing a policy response. Under that circumstance, the Bank of Canada may be compelled to raise its policy rate despite domestic weaknesses, creating a stagflationary economic backdrop. Thus far, the Bank has held its policy rate since the outset of the Iran conflict, as inflation has not (yet) spiked to projected levels. However, should subsequent CPI prints show rapid price acceleration, the Bank would be largely cornered into responding with tighter policy to quell further inflation.
That said, we do expect the Bank to look through this supply shock and hold its policy rate at 2.25 per cent this year. However, if growth and inflation follow the Bank’s current outlook, we anticipate the policy rate will rise back to the midpoint of the Bank’s neutral range, 2.75 per cent, by the end of 2027.
Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission
