Both the Bank of Canada and, in the United States, the Federal Reserve have interest-rate announcements scheduled for July 30. The widespread speculation is that interest rates in both countries will…well, who really knows?
Given that the latest rates for tariffs are supposed to go into effect 48 hours later, it’s logical that the movement (or non-movement) of interest rates is a decision that will not be made until the last minute — unless the two countries confirm a trade deal in the next two weeks.
The last time the Bank of Canada addressed its policy rate, there was no change, and that’s been the case for the two consecutive announcements, April 16 and June 4. This year began with .25 per cent drops in January and March, and there are three more scheduled announcements in 2025.
The current rate is 2.75 per cent.
Some experts who dare to speculate about July 30 are anticipating another “no change” while the Bank of Canada continues to monitor Canadian economic data and the impact of the trade policy. However, there is some appetite for predicting another .25 per cent drop this month.
Some, on the other hand, are even speculating no interest-rate changes will occur until early in 2026. What they all seem to agree on is that this “holding pattern” has created a more stable and lower-rate environment.
The Bank of Canada changes influence mortgage rates, impact the housing market and influence buyers and sellers alike. The lower the interest rate goes, the more likely there is to be increased demand for real estate.
That’s why July 30 could be a key date for the market.